Section 1B

13 Model Selection

AP PRECALCULUS — UNIT 1B · POLYNOMIAL & RATIONAL FUNCTIONS

1.13 — Function Model Selection and Assumption Articulation

Notes — Matching Data Shape to a Function Family

💡 Learning Objectives

By the end of this lesson you will be able to (AP CED 1.13.A, 1.13.B):

  • Choose an appropriate function family (linear, quadratic, polynomial, rational, piecewise) to model a given scenario or data set.
  • Justify the choice of model using the shape of the data or the contextual behavior.
  • State the assumptions and restrictions that come with any chosen model.

1. The Model-Selection Question

When faced with real-world data or a described scenario, the modeler must choose WHICH kind of function best captures the behavior. Each family of functions has a characteristic shape and a characteristic rate of change. The choice of model is a judgment call — different families may fit the data roughly equally well — and it must be justified, not merely stated.

2. Shape Signatures of Common Function Families

Each family has a distinctive signature. Use these to match data to model:

  • Linear (degree 1): constant rate of change. First differences of evenly-spaced data are constant.
  • Quadratic (degree 2): roughly symmetric around a single max or min. Second differences are constant.
  • Cubic (degree 3) and higher polynomials: multiple turning points, alternating concavity.
  • Rational: presence of vertical or horizontal asymptotes, long-run steady state, or singular behavior near a specific input.
  • Piecewise: distinct regimes of behavior — the data splits naturally into regions with different shapes.

Matching data shape to function family. The same four data sets could be described verbally ('rises steadily', 'peaks then falls', …) — those verbal cues should match your model choice.

💡 Quick Check

Which function family would you use for each scenario?

  • A car traveling at constant speed on a highway. → linear
  • A ball tossed upward, height vs. time. → quadratic
  • Cost-per-unit decreasing as production scales up. → rational
  • Bus fare: $2 flat for 0–3 miles, then $0.50 per mile. → piecewise

3. Geometric Reasoning

Geometric contexts often suggest a model directly. Lengths give linear. Areas give quadratic (two dimensions). Volumes give cubic (three dimensions). If a problem says 'the cross-section has side x,' think about whether the quantity scales linearly, quadratically, or cubically with x.

4. Constant nth Differences → Polynomial of Degree n

For evenly-spaced inputs, take first differences (consecutive y-values subtracted). If those are constant, the data is linear. If not, take second differences — if constant, quadratic. Continue until the nth differences are constant; the underlying model has degree n.

📘 Example

Example 1 — Reading degree from a table

The table (x, y) has values (0, 1), (1, 3), (2, 9), (3, 21), (4, 41). Which polynomial degree fits?

First differences: 2, 6, 12, 20. Not constant.

Second differences: 4, 6, 8. Not constant.

Third differences: 2, 2. CONSTANT. So the model is degree 3 (cubic).

5. Articulating Assumptions

No model is correct without its assumptions. A model implicitly assumes certain things stay constant, that quantities change together in a specific way, and that the data lies within a valid range. Stating these assumptions is part of communicating a model on the AP Exam.

💡 Definitions

Assumption categories to articulate:

  • What stays constant (e.g., the per-item cost remains $5)?
  • How quantities change together (e.g., distance changes linearly with time)?
  • Domain restrictions (e.g., x ≥ 0 for a physical quantity)?
  • Range restrictions (e.g., round to nearest dollar, can't have negative population)?

📘 Example

Example 2 — Articulating assumptions

A company models its profit by P(x) = 40x − 2000 dollars, where x is the number of units sold.

Linear model assumes: (a) each unit brings a constant profit of $40, (b) fixed costs are $2000 regardless of x, (c) x is a nonnegative integer (can't sell negative units).

Potential failure points: large-volume discounts would break the linear assumption; capacity limits would truncate the model's domain.

🎯 AP Tip

On an AP modeling FRQ, writing 'this is linear because the rate is constant' is half the answer. The other half is stating at least one assumption and one restriction that the model relies on. Name BOTH to earn full credit.

📘 Try This

Decide the most appropriate model family for each, and state one assumption.

  • The population of a bacteria colony doubles every hour. → EXPONENTIAL (Unit 2); assumption: no resource limits.
  • The area of a circle as a function of radius. → QUADRATIC; assumption: the circle stays perfectly round.
  • The average cost per item for a factory with fixed + variable costs. → RATIONAL; assumption: fixed costs are indeed fixed.

6. Summary

  • Match shape to family: linear, quadratic, polynomial (higher degree), rational, piecewise.
  • Constant nth differences of evenly-spaced data ⇒ polynomial of degree n.
  • Geometric contexts often dictate degree: lengths → 1, areas → 2, volumes → 3.
  • Every model carries assumptions and restrictions — state them explicitly.

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